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J.T. Realmuto has delivered All-Star caliber production in two seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, and yet, the franchise hasn’t been able to post a winning record, let alone snap a lengthy postseason drought.

Certainly, the Phillies would be a worse team in 2021 if they don’t bring back Realmuto. But what are the Phillies if they re-sign Realmuto, while cutting costs elsewhere on the rest of the roster in a division with four other legitimate postseason contenders?

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The Atlanta Braves have won three consecutive National League East titles, and as long as they have Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies signed to team-friendly deals, they probably aren’t going anywhere.

The New York Mets have long been one of the sport’s laughingstocks, but you do get the sense that new owner Steve Cohen may change the culture in Queens. Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman will rejoin a rotation that already included two-time National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. Carlos Carrasco will come to New York now as part of the deal that landed the team superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor Thursday. Lindor will be added into a lineup with Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Dom Smith, among others. And hey, quietly, Edwin Díaz was quietly excellent in his second season with the Mets after a disastrous first campaign. Something always seems to go wrong with the Mets, but they really feel like a playoff-caliber roster, perhaps one that will compete for the division title over the next few seasons.

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The Washington Nationals find themselves at something of a crossroads, but still employ Juan Soto and Trea Turner. They’re also just a couple seasons removed from winning a World Series, of course.

The Miami Marlins, once the doormats of the National League East, appeared to see the tide turn in 2020. Not only did the Marlins sneak into the playoffs with an expanded field this past season, but they won a series over the Chicago Cubs. Former Phillies top prospect Sixto Sánchez highlights a bounty of young pitchers that the Marlins have in their organization. You’ve already seen Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez at the major league level, and Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer are among those on the way. The Marlins will always be at a financial disadvantage in the National League East, but the incredible job they’ve done developing homegrown pitching should keep them in contention over the next half decade.

And then there’s the Phillies.

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There’s a lot to like about the top half of the Phillies roster. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are players that any team would covet. The Phillies have spoken highly of Zach Eflin – who had something of a breakout campaign in 2020 – this winter. This isn’t a situation like 2014 where there’s absolutely nothing to be excited about with the franchise.

At last, the stove is heating up.

It took 69 days, but the Phillies finally hired a new head of baseball operations last week. Dave Dombrowski isn’t any executive, either. He’s the only general manager to build World Series teams in three cities.

“Everywhere he goes, he’s there to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras said. “And he has done so.”

Dombrowski insists the Phillies require “a retool, not a rebuild.” But his offseason to-do list is lengthy, and not just because he’s starting late. If the Phillies are going to end a nine-year playoff drought, they need almost an entirely new bullpen and perhaps a new catcher and shortstop, too.

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“There won’t be a lot of sleep involved the next couple of weeks,” Dombrowski said. “I’ve already received, I bet you, from at least half the general managers in Major League Baseball, ‘Welcome back. Congratulations. Let’s talk.’ ”

Yes, let’s.

You’re signed up to get this newsletter in your inbox every Thursday during the Phillies offseason, but we will be on a two-week hiatus because of the coming holidays. If you like what you’re reading, tell your friends it’s free to sign up here. I want to know what you think, what we should add, and what you want to read, so send me feedback by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber. Thank you for reading.

— Scott Lauber (extrainn[email protected])

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Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin had a 3.65 ERA, 41 strikeouts and six walks in 37 innings over his final six starts last season.Read moreYONG KIM / Staff Photographer
Phillies counting on big things from Zach Eflin
Not long after Dombrowski rolled up his sleeves, charged up his phone and got to work, he identified what he believes to be an area of strength on the Phillies roster.

“When you talk about Nola, Wheeler and Eflin,” he said, “that’s a good place to start.”

But the Phillies employed all six players mentioned above in 2020 and went 28-32. They also had Didi Gregorius, and mum has been the word on a potential reunion with a player that homered 10 times and drove in 40 runs this past season. A historically-bad bullpen is almost certainly due for positive regression, especially if a young arm like Connor Brogdon emerges as reliable option in high-leverage situations. But will the Phillies have a bullpen on par with the Braves or Mets in 2021? Probably not. Unless they’re confident that one of Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn or Mickey Moniak will emerge as a starting-caliber option next year, the Phillies also don’t have an internal answer in center field.

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So what are the Phillies if they re-sign Realmuto but don’t make one or two other major moves this offseason? Probably a .500 team, give or take a few games. Teams that are retooling – hinting they are a year or two away – aren’t typically ones that sign catchers entering their age-30 season to five or six-season deals.

The Phillies unquestionably will be a worse team with anyone other than Realmuto as their starting catcher in 2021, especially with ESPN‘s Jeff Passan noting earlier this offseason that the Phillies probably won’t reinvest the money that would be spent on Realmuto on anyone else this winter if he departs.

But new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski didn’t trade for Realmuto. Sure, as he’s stated on multiple occasions, Dombrowski would love to retain the All-Star catcher. However, if in his early evaluations of the organization he’s determined that the team is probably more likely to be ready to be a force in 2023, should he re-sign Realmuto, who will be a catcher entering his age-32 season at that point? That’s a fair discussion to have.

Even if Lindor re-signs with the Mets and Corey Seager does the same with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa are star shortstops that could become free agents next offseason. All three are younger than Realmuto, and play a position that takes less of a toll on you than catching does. Maybe it would be wiser for the Phillies to save the money they could spend on Realmuto this offseason – knowing they may not contend with him while he’s still at his peak – and consider signing one of the major shortstops next offseason.

Couldn’t the Phillies re-sign Realmuto and pursue one of the major shortstops next offseason? Yes, in theory, they could. But there is a reality that owners around the sport are hesitant to spend right now, to the point where it feels pretty unlikely that the Phillies re-sign both Realmuto and Gregorius this winter. If the Phillies are potentially unwilling to spend a combined $170 million (just an estimate) on Realmuto and Gregorius this offseason, does it seem likely they’ll re-sign Realmuto for $125ish million now and then spend $150 million plus on one of the shortstops next offseason? From here, the answer is no.

In many ways, the Realmuto situation is symptomatic of much larger organizational problems. If you’re spending as much as the Phillies are on high-priced veterans, you should have a really good team. The problem is, despite the stated goal of “finding value on the margins” under former general manager Matt Klentak, the Phillies really haven’t done that. Nor have they developed a consistent pipeline of young talent through their minor league system.

And so, the Phillies find themselves in a position where if they re-sign Realmuto, it will be an upset if they win a National League East title before he’s past his peak. Given all the other holes on the roster, who knows if they’d even win a Wild Card spot during however many years Realmuto has left at the height of his powers. But if Realmuto isn’t re-signed, fans will have justifiable anger, and the Phillies may very well finish in last place in the National League East in 2021, going down looking as another year of Harper, Nola and Wheeler is wasted.

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While a whopping 10 players made their major-league debuts for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2020, the team probably won’t be relying on that many rookies in 2021.

Still, young players will have to play a role for the Phillies in the upcoming season, just as they do for any team.

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Top prospects that are still rookie eligible such as Mickey Moniak and Adonis Medina are likely to get major-league looks again this season. Players like shortstop Bryson Stott or left-hander Damon Jones could even make their big-league debuts.

But some lesser known prospects could also crack the majors for the Phillies this season as well. If the Phillies need to utilize what minor-league depth they have, there are a few players most likely to make an impact. Phillies Nation examined the three players that could have the best chances of doing so:

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Kyle Dohy, LHP

PHILADELPHIA — Phillies president Andy MacPhail said a few weeks ago that they could move forward without a new head of baseball operations in the short term, because the next several weeks would be mostly internal decisions about their own players.

Friday was one of those days.

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They announced that they placed six players on the 40-man roster, the deadline to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft: left-handers Kyle Dohy, Damon Jones and Bailey Falter; right-hander Francisco Morales; infielder Nick Maton and outfielder Simon Muzziotti.

• Phillies’ Top 30 prospects

Morales is the organization’s No. 4 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He could be a stud in the Phillies’ rotation at some point. He has a fastball that touches 98 mph. He also throws a nasty slider, which got a 30 percent swing-and-miss rate in 2019, and a solid changeup. He is only 21 and has not pitched above Class A Lakewood, so he is probably at least a year away from helping the Phillies in the big leagues, but it looks like the $900,000 they paid him in the 2016-17 international signing period was well spent.

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Muzziotti is the No. 11 prospect in the organization. Maton is No. 13, Jones is No. 15 and Dohy is No. 27.

Top Prospects: Muzziotti, PHI
Apr 2, 2020 · 0:46
Top Prospects: Muzziotti, PHI
Muzziotti is a high-contact hitter who plays an above-average center field, which could have made him intriguing to another team, despite the fact he has not played above Class A Advanced Clearwater. The Phillies placed Maton on their 60-man player pool this summer. He could break into the big leagues next season in a utility role. Jones and Dohy could help the Phillies’ bullpen next season.

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Nick Maton’s two-run home run
Feb 25, 2020 · 0:38
Nick Maton’s two-run home run
The Phillies selected Falter in the fifth round of the 2015 Draft. Falter, 23, went 6-5 with a 3.84 ERA for Double-A Reading in 2019.

The Phillies have 37 players on the 40-man roster.

A left-handed reliever, Dohy appeared to be on the path to major-league promotion early in the 2019 season similar to the one right-hander Seranthony Domínguez took the year prior. Dohy dominated in six appearances and 11 innings in Double-A Reading, and was quickly promoted to Triple-A. But the hard-throwing lefty struggled to adjust to the higher level, and remained there for the rest of the season, posting a 6.19 ERA in 41 appearances with Lehigh Valley.

After the canceled 2020 Minor League Baseball season, Dohy will likely return to Triple-A to start 2021. He was added to the 40-man roster earlier this winter, making the 24-year-old a likely candidate for a promotion if the Phillies need bullpen help during the season.

Cristopher Sánchez, LHP

The Phillies traded for Sánchez ahead of last season when the Tampa Bay Rays chose to not add him to their 40-man roster. And after spending the 2020 season at the team’s alternate training site in Lehigh Valley, Sánchez could be in line to make his major-league debut at some point this season.

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The 24-year-old has a fastball that approaches 100 miles per hour from the left side, as well as experience in both starting and relief roles in the minors. He had a 2.26 ERA in 24 outings — 10 of them starts — across three levels in 2019. Sánchez could serve as a spot starter or an addition to the bullpen if the Phillies need additional pitching depth at the majors in 2021.

Kyle Holder, infielder

Holder, the Phillies’ selection in this winter’s Rule 5 draft, will almost certainly have some kind of major-league role if he stays in the organization. Holder will have to stay on the team’s active roster throughout the upcoming season, or the Phillies would have to offer him back to the New York Yankees.

The 26-year-old reached Double-A in the Yankees organization in 2019, and spent last season at their alternate site. The 2015 first-round pick had a .742 OPS in 112 games in his last minor-league season. Primarily a shortstop, Holder has also played second base and third base. He could be the Phillies utility infielder to begin the 2021 season.

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The Philadelphia Phillies had a disappointing 2020 season, but they did see the emergence of several expected and unexpected rookies on the roster.

Alec Bohm had an impressive rookie season. (David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)
While the Phillies have a farm system that lacks talent that will help within the next couple of years, the young wave of players that made their debuts with the team last season could all assume impactful roles moving forward.

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Alec Bohm was the highest-ranked position player in the Phillies farm system and excelled in his first season as a major leaguer. In 44 games, he slashed .338/.400/.481 and led the majors with a .452 batting average with runners in scoring position.

While Bohm’s future at third base is questionable, there is no questioning his hit tool. He was a key cog in the Phillies offense in the month of October and will continue to complement Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins in the middle of the lineup for years to come.

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Spencer Howard was the Phillies highest-ranked pitching prospect coming into the season, but despite being considered major-league ready, he struggled in the six starts he made. Before being ruled out for the season due to a shoulder injury, Howard went 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA in 24 1/3 innings pitched.

While Howard did not make the immediate impact that Bohm did, he still could have a bright future with the team. He was a top pitcher for a reason, and flashes an impressive four-pitch repertoire that could help him eventually a near-top of the rotation pitcher.

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No one outside of that duo was hyped coming into the season, but the Phillies got production from other rookies.

JoJo Romero was a crafty starting pitcher in the minors and was not known to throw at all above the low 90s. But in his debut against the Atlanta Braves in late august, Romero struck out the side and, perhaps more surprisingly, hit 97 miles per hour on the radar gun.

The Phillies have added six Rule 5 Draft-eligible prospects to their 40-man roster.
The Philadelphia Phillies added six prospects to their 40-man roster on Friday — left-handed pitchers Kyle Dohy (24 years old), Bailey Falter (23), Damon Jones (26); right-handed pitcher Francisco Morales (21); infielder Nick Maton (23); and outfielder Simon Muzziotti (21).

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By selecting their contracts ahead of Friday’s deadline, these players are now protected from being selected by another team in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. The Phillies’ 40-man roster now stands at 37 players. Maton, Morales, and Muzziotti were recently named to Baseball America’s Top 10 Phillies prospects list.

2019 Stats
Dohy (AA, AAA): 7-5, 5.32 ERA, 47 appearances, 105 strikeouts, 67 2/3 innings
Falter (AA): 6-5, 3.84 ERA, 14 starts, 62/15 SO/BB, 77 1/3 innings
Jones (A+, AA, AAA): 5-4, 2.91 ERA, 23 starts, 152/59 SO/BB, 114 1/3 innings
Morales (A): 1-8, 3.82 ERA, 27 appearances, 15 starts, 129 SO, 96 2/3 innings
Maton (A+, AA): .266/.349/.376, 17 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 51 RBI
Muzziotti (A+): .287/.337/.372, 21 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 21 SB
Dohy, Falter, Jones, Morales, Maton and Muzziotti are Rule 5-eligible because they either signed their first professional contract when they were at least 19 years old and have played four years, or signed when they were 18 or younger and have played five years.

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Last year, the Phillies protected four prospects, including left-handers JoJo Romero, Garrett Cleavinger and Cristopher Sanchez, as well as right-hander Mauricio Llovera. Romero (12 appearances, 7.59 ERA), Cleavinger (1 appearance, 13.50 ERA), and Llovera (1 appearance, 36.00 ERA) all made their big-league debuts this past season. Sanchez was added to the 60-man player pool, but never received the call up from the Phillies alternate training site in Lehigh Valley.

Despite protecting these four, several other of the organization’s prospects remained vulnerable to being plucked. NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury notes that southpaw reliever Zach Warren, southpaw starter David Parkinson, slugging outfielder Jhailyn Ortiz, and righty Kevin Gowdy were left unprotected. The Phillies lost no players in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft’s major league phase.

RELATED STORY: Enyel De Los Santos among Rule 5-eligible Phillies prospects
The draft provides a unique opportunity to add a player for $100,000 from another organization through means other than free agency or trade. If the Phils were to select a player — such as they famously did 16 years ago with the now-Hall of Fame-eligible Shane Victorino — they must remain on the big-league roster for the entirety of the 2021 season or be offered back to their original team for $50,000.

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The Phillies have not kept any of their Rule 5 selections since Tyler Goeddel in 2016. They selected 26-year-old shortstop Vimael Machin from the Chicago Cubs in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft, but soon after dealt him to the Oakland Athletics for cash considerations.

The 2020 Rule 5 Draft will take place on Thursday, December 10; the annual offseason event is typically held on the last day of Winter Meetings (this year’s will not be held in person due to the COVID-19 pandemic). Perhaps, the Phils could target a reliever, as they look to revamp their near-all-time-worse bullpen from the 2020 season.

The 24-year-old southpaw continued to impress over his next handful of outings, pitching to a 2.89 ERA over his first nine appearances. But Romero struggled down the stretch and allowed six earned runs in just three outings.

Despite these struggles, though, Romero still looks to be at least a part of a Phillies bullpen that hopes to improve in 2021 and beyond.

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Elsewhere in the bullpen, Connor Brogdon struggled greatly during his first cup of coffee in the majors. In three August appearances, he allowed three home runs and five earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work.

But, after spending some time at the alternate site in Lehigh Valley, Brogdon came back and pitched extremely well. In six games, Brogdon allowed zero earned runs and just one hit. He also struck out 14 batters in just 8 2/3 innings of work, flashing potential to become a high-leverage reliever for the Phillies in the future.

These four players all could play a big part in a 2021 Phillies team that is not likely to have high hopes heading into the season.

If the team loses Realmuto, Bohm will need to step up and continue his excellent September production from the plate. As Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler hold down the top of the rotation, the Phillies will need Howard to step up and stabilize the middle of the rotation, along with Zach Eflin.

And, just as importantly, Brogdon and Romero will be counted on to bolster a bullpen that was likely the worst in baseball history. Even if the Phillies sign multiple relievers, these two will have a role moving forward.

Other Phillies prospects that made their debuts in 2020 could have an impact moving forward, although their roles are not as clear as the four mentioned above.

Ramon Rosso struggled out of the gate, but flashes stuff that could allow him to be the Phillies long reliever in 2021. Garrett Cleavinger only appeared in one game, but struck out 14.5 hitters per nine innings the previous season in Reading.

The Phillies will need to rely on these players, as it does not appear that they will be able to patch all of their holes in free agency with a self-imposed budget. Their offseason plans will become clearer in the coming weeks, with the MLB Winter Meetings starting on Monday.